43550 observations (650 stock-days, 22 days) correlation, price change vs net buying over the same 15 min: 0.24 correlation, price change vs net buying over the same 30 min: 0.24 --- Does each measure predict what comes next? (AUC: next-30 / next-60 / to-close rising; 1st/2nd half for next-60) ret15 0.492 / 0.489 / 0.492 halves 0.486 / 0.492 imb15 0.498 / 0.500 / 0.502 halves 0.505 / 0.495 resid15 0.490 / 0.489 / 0.490 halves 0.478 / 0.499 ret30 0.494 / 0.488 / 0.490 halves 0.483 / 0.492 imb30 0.497 / 0.500 / 0.503 halves 0.507 / 0.492 resid30 0.489 / 0.486 / 0.486 halves 0.470 / 0.502 imb5 0.494 / 0.497 / 0.499 halves 0.502 / 0.492 room 0.514 / 0.518 / 0.519 halves 0.523 / 0.513 --- Patterns (every 5-min observation) vs all stocks at the same minute pattern n next 30 next 60 to close 60m 1st/2nd half rose 60m QUIET DEMAND: up >= 1% in 30 min on net selling (imb30 <= 0) 866 -0.11% -0.35% -0.83% -0.58/-0.16% 43% HEAVY BUYING + UP: up >= 1% on net buying >= +0.15 1881 +0.06% +0.08% -0.50% +0.30/-0.09% 47% ABSORBED BUYING: down >= 1% on net buying >= 0 1472 -0.12% -0.19% -0.16% -0.30/-0.10% 52% NORMAL SELLING: down >= 1% on net selling <= -0.15 1435 -0.56% -0.65% -0.73% -0.58/-0.70% 47% UP MORE THAN BUYING EXPLAINS (resid30 >= +1%) 5031 -0.04% -0.11% -0.67% -0.11/-0.11% 44% DOWN MORE THAN SELLING EXPLAINS (resid30 <= -1%) 4789 -0.30% -0.40% -0.66% -0.47/-0.34% 49% BUYING BURST (imb5 >= +0.5) within 1% of 14-day resistance 797 +0.03% +0.04% +0.15% +0.02/+0.05% 44% BUYING BURST (imb5 >= +0.5) at the day's high (within 0.5%) 405 +0.15% +0.23% +0.58% +0.36/+0.03% 40%